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In order to evaluate the social development risk in the process of reformation and social transformation, a scientific, rigorous and feasible model is used in this paper. By using factor analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, we set an evaluation model according to the inherent composition of the social risk based on the present risk and the basic situation in the key period of social system transformation in our country. Through principal component analysis, we can get the score of social risk index, so that we can classify the stage of social risk. Through the evaluation model test, we can get some reliable indexes which reflect the true social risks system. The comprehensive evaluation method provides an operational way for government management and decision-making, while also providing a reference model for social risk warning research.