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Short term load forecasting using Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems

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3 Author(s)
Khosravi, A. ; Centre for Intell. Syst. Res., Deakin Univ., Geelong, VIC, Australia ; Nahavandi, S. ; Creighton, D.

Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy may drop due to presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. This paper proposes the application of Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Systems (IT2 FLSs) for the problem of STLF. IT2 FLSs, with extra degrees of freedom, are an excellent tool for handling prevailing uncertainties and improving the prediction accuracy. Experiments conducted with real datasets show that IT2 FLS models appropriately approximate future load demands with an acceptable accuracy. Furthermore, they demonstrate an encouraging degree of accuracy superior to feedforward neural networks used in this study.

Published in:

Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ), 2011 IEEE International Conference on

Date of Conference:

27-30 June 2011

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