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Application of maximum entropy principle to load forecasting collaboration

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3 Author(s)
Jun Xiao ; Key Laboratory of Smart Grid of Ministry of Education, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China ; Xuan Zhang ; Binshan Xu

This paper proposes a collaborative load forecasting method based on maximum entropy principle. Taking the expectation and second order central moment of forecasting results into account and using the maximum entropy principle, the load forecasting method receives the probability distribution function of the forecasted values and obtains the final high, middle and low forecasting scheme based on the probability theory. Based on this method, three applications in load forecasting are introduced in this paper. Case studies have shown applications of this method can take the affection of the conflicts among different forecasting path into account in forecasting, resulting in higher precision of load forecasting.

Published in:

Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT), 2011 4th International Conference on

Date of Conference:

6-9 July 2011