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Forest fire forecast synthesizes the main weather factors, geography, and degree of wet fuel, fuel types and characteristics of fire source to analyze and predict the forest fuel risk. All fire risk factors were divided into two kinds including stable and changeable factors. In this paper, Huaguo Mountain Scenic Spot in Liangyungang is choosed as study region. Stable fire risk factors, including topography and fuel types were used for forest zone evaluation. Using 10cm Aerial images, based on Forestry Resources surveying, this paper obtained the forestry vegetation type location and their characteristics such as tree height, breast-height diameter, leaves height, and canopy density. In the same time, the digital DEM and various geography factors such as elevation, slope, slope aspect, slope position was obtained by GIS. Based on these geography and fuel types characteristics the study region fire risk zone were divided using clustering analysis. Each fire risk zone has relative conformity in the geography and fuel types and its fire risk rating changing with weather and characteristics of fire source were modelled by Fuzzy multi-level synthetic evaluation. By fire risk zone, short time fire (24 hours) and high spatial resolution forecast would be realized, through further study in the similar region.
Date of Conference: June 29 2011-July 1 2011