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In order to employ adaptive modulation and coding, it is important to determine the post-detected signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the system. In this paper, we propose a new method to predict the link performance for multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems with maximum likelihood detector (MLD) which adopt a single channel encoder. By using the relation between the upper and the lower bound systems of the MIMO system with MLD and defining the dynamic SNR penalty, we show that it is possible to represent the link performance of MIMO systems with MLD as a single scalar value with high accuracy. By adopting the proposed method to adaptive modulation and coding systems, we confirm the efficiency of the proposed method for frequency selective channels through simulations.