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In this paper, firstly logistics demand is introduced and indicator items are discussed. Then forecasting of logistics demand scale is illustrated. And GM(1,1) model is discussed in detail. Based on freight traffic and freight ton-kilometers, a novel forecasting model using Grey System Theory for logistics demand scale in Guangdong Province is proposed. Experiment result shows that relative error of freight traffic forcasting for 2009 is 0.8576% and that of freight ton-kilometers is 0.526%. So this model is efficient for forecasting of logistics demand in local area.
Date of Conference: 25-27 June 2011