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Simulation of economy-resource-environment system of Jiangxi province based on system dynamics model

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2 Author(s)
Zhu Qing ; E&M Sch., East China Inst. of Technol., Fuzhou, China ; Wang Mingchao

A system dynamics production model illustrates feedbacks between economic growth, resource depletion and environment pollution. The modeling results could offer some advice for sustainable development of JiangXi in China. The core of system dynamics model in this paper is a Cobb-Douglas production function. Six variables are evolved in the production function, which denote Production, Technology, Human capital, Man-made capital, Input of renewable natural resource, Input of non-renewable natural resource separately. They are separately corresponded to the six sub-systems in the whole economy-environment-resource system. In addition to the six subsystems, there are two other sub-systems in parallel, which are population and environment. The eight sub-systems determine the probable scenarios of economy-environment-resource system together by interaction and feeding back among them. Adjusting the parameters within the model and changing the specification of some variables illustrate the isolated effect of resource depletion, technological development, or other factors, on per-capita production. The results could tell three points, which are: the temporal development mode of Jiangxi is not sustainable; the substitution rate of technology for natural recourses is lower; the only way to realize sustainable development of Jiangxi is to change the economic development mode.

Published in:

Business Management and Electronic Information (BMEI), 2011 International Conference on  (Volume:3 )

Date of Conference:

13-15 May 2011