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This paper presents an accurate tool yielding a reliable prediction of the link quality for the down-link of a BIC-OFDM system featuring bandlimited pulse shaping to control spectral sidelobe emission, plus AMC, and operating over a nonlinear channel. The tool enables an effective design of the communication system, with special respect to the setting of the operating point of the transmitter's power amplifier. First, an analytical characterization of the nonlinear distortion effects caused by the amplifier on bandlimited BIC-OFDM signals is carried out by resorting to the extended version of the Bussgang theorem. Then, the equivalent additive noise model provided by the Bussgang-based analysis is taken into account in the derivation of a novel link quality prediction method, named BκESM. Finally, the novel BκESM tool is employed in the link design phase for choosing the best amplifier setting, aimed at maximizing the layer-3 offered traffic over a realistic wireless channel, featuring both multipath propagation and nonlinear distortions.