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Risk-Based Assessment of Financial Losses Due to Voltage Sag

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3 Author(s)
Jhan Yhee Chan ; School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK ; Jovica V. Milanovic ; Alice Delahunty

This paper investigates the factors that influence the outcome of financial-loss analysis in voltage sag studies. Focusing on industrial processes, this paper considers the effects of voltage sag profile estimation, plant-load profile modelling, and process cycle modelling on the financial risk associated with process failure. Based on voltage sag monitoring records, sag profile is probabilistically modeled for the estimation of future sag characteristic. Variations in financial risk due to varying process activities in different stages of a process (process cycle) and load profile are also investigated. The effects of the individual factors are analyzed through Monte Carlo simulation. The stochastic net present value method is introduced as a financial analysis tool.

Published in:

IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery  (Volume:26 ,  Issue: 2 )