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According to physical process during the occurrence and development of cascading failure combining with the probabilistic characters of various stages of the event, a probabilistic analysis method for power network cascading failure is established, by which the detailed probabilistic description to various links of cascading failure can be conducted. The basic idea is: to simulate and find the possible path of the development of cascading failures, since the initial failure taken place till the judgments meet the termination constraints. Meanwhile, based on a priori statistical probability of the event, simulation was set up to determine the path. To IEEE 39-bus test system, the indices are adopted to perform risk assessment of cascading failure to find the vulnerable spot of power system. Further, there are some guidance for improving reliability of power system operation.