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Capacity Credit Evaluation of Wind Power with Sequential Monte Carlo Method

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3 Author(s)
Kong Xiangyu ; Key Lab. of Power Syst. Simulation & Control of Minist. of Educ., Tianjin Univ., Tianjin, China ; Cui Kai ; Jia Hongjie

Wind can be considered as an interesting alternative to fossil fuels, but as a power source, is both intermittent and diffuse. It is necessary to calculate wind equivalent capacities in order to introduce a coherent evaluation of wind production in the management of the centralized production park. Base on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique for wind speeds, an auto-regressive and moving average time series model was used to simulate wind power. And a capacity credit evaluation of wind power method was proposed, which provides the existence probability of wind generation possible outage capacity levels. A number of sensitivity analyses were presented with case studies to illustrate possible applications of the proposed method.

Published in:

E-Product E-Service and E-Entertainment (ICEEE), 2010 International Conference on

Date of Conference:

7-9 Nov. 2010

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