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The paper presents a new method to evaluate the loss of load probability and expected energy not supply, based for the convolution of probability distribution functions for load flow using the linear load flow equations. It uses the concept of equivalent branches to the systems nodes and their probability distribution functions. The generation units are considered trough a binomial probabilistic distribution while the loads trough a normal one. The equivalent probability distribution functions is estimates only by a sum of weighted normal distribution with means and variances computed from means of loads and impulse values, respectively sum of variances of loads. The loss of load probability and expected energy not supply are estimated only with Gauss Laplace integral functions.
Date of Conference: Aug. 31 2010-Sept. 3 2010