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Road pavement performance evaluation and prediction is two most important parts of pavement management system. In order to scientifically and accurately predict the future road pavement situation,evaluation indexes and main influence factors of pavement performance were analyzed. Then functional performance,structure performance, safety performance, and comfortability performance was selected as the evolution index and three factors were taken as parameters, including temperature, annual precipitation,annual average daily traffic. The two prediction models of BP neural network and hybrid algorithms based on neural network and genetic algorithm were built respectively. Forecasting result shows that neural network model based on genetic algorithms has higher prediction accuracy and more network generalization than those of BP neural network.
Date of Conference: 13-14 Sept. 2010