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Short-term traffic flow time series forecasting based on grey interval forecasts method

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3 Author(s)
Xingyi Li ; Sch. of Comput. Sci. & Telecommun. Eng., Jiangsu Univ., Zhenjiang, China ; Zhang Xinghua ; Huaji Shi

Based on the randomness and uncertainty of short-term traffic volume time series, a grey interval forecasts method combined with threshold value analysis and interpolation analysis is put forward, aim to solve the interval grey model for coping with limited and secondary interval data. According to the stepwise ratio, lots of discussions have been made on threshold value analysis. And then, the upper envelope and the lower envelope are surveyed and marked off under distribution law of traffic data. After that, the grouped-data are used for interpolation analysis. In the end, GM(1,1) model is established to simulate the sequence, through which the range of predicted values are obtained. The New Information Principle in Grey System Theory ensures that this interval forecast method has a good anti-interference ability and fault tolerance, experiments show the interval forecast method has high accuracy.

Published in:

Educational and Information Technology (ICEIT), 2010 International Conference on  (Volume:1 )

Date of Conference:

17-19 Sept. 2010