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As telecommunication technologies developing, the multimedia service, especially video service, is more and more required. But the confliction between high complexity of video coding and worse computation capacity of mobile terminals becomes a bottleneck in related research. H.264/AVC is one of the most popular international video coding standards. So reducing its computation is important. In this paper, the distributions of the intra-prediction modes' costs are studied by experiments and compiling the statistics in both 16×16 and 4×4 blocks for luma in H.264/AVC I-frame coding. Then the conclusion that the distributions of the cost can be modeled as F distribution is proven by Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests. An adaptive threshold prediction method is presented to predict the distribution's parameter of the cost. And the distribution's quantile is used to set up threshold in order to reduce the unnecessary computation. According to the experimental results in the last table, a good performance is shown with the method presented.