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Using Social Media to Predict Future Events with Agent-based Markets

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We propose agent-based prediction markets, i.e. markets that use agents instead of human participants. Agents extract user sentiments and assessments available on social media and use them in order to make informed transactions that enable the prediction of future events. By combining an agent-based approach with information available on social media we were able to match the predictive accuracy of human-based PMs without the need to recruit and incentivize humans.

Published in:

IEEE Intelligent Systems  (Volume:PP ,  Issue: 99 )