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The forecast of vegetable plant diseases and insect pests commonly bases on experts' knowledge of plant protection while math modeling methods are scarcely used to analyze the associated data quantitatively. This paper establishes the forecast model for vegetable pest flea beetle by maximum likelihood algorithm. Besides, algorithm ensembles can improve the system of generalization learning ability, maximum likelihood algorithm ensembles can reduce the number of training samples taken on requirements. The experimental results of Guangdong vegetable pest flea beetle shows that the forecast accuracy of maximum likelihood algorithm ensembles provides a higher accuracy rate than that of nearest neighbor clustering, k-means clustering and support vector machine in the same condition.