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This paper presents a model to estimate the average BER and throughput performance for an adaptive channel coding scheme. Usually, the adaptive coding scheme consist a few CS that will intelligently adapt to channel variation to minimize the BER and maximize throughput. Thus the system performance cannot rely on single CS. At the receiver, the CS transition is decided based on the detected error and the result is sent to transmitter via Acknowledgment data. By considering the Acknowledgment error, four-state Markov model performance estimation (MMPE-4) is developed. Three types of Acknowledgment are used to observe the effect on estimation model. Performance comparison between MMPE-4 and simulation for each Acknowledgment scheme is made. The CCIR 520-1 channel model is used during simulation and the results shows that both are comparable for various Acknowledgment strategies.