By Topic

Forecasting power output for grid-connected photovoltaic power system without using solar radiation measurement

Sign In

Cookies must be enabled to login.After enabling cookies , please use refresh or reload or ctrl+f5 on the browser for the login options.

Formats Non-Member Member
$33 $13
Learn how you can qualify for the best price for this item!
Become an IEEE Member or Subscribe to
IEEE Xplore for exclusive pricing!
close button

puzzle piece

IEEE membership options for an individual and IEEE Xplore subscriptions for an organization offer the most affordable access to essential journal articles, conference papers, standards, eBooks, and eLearning courses.

Learn more about:

IEEE membership

IEEE Xplore subscriptions

3 Author(s)
Cai Tao ; College of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, China ; Duan Shanxu ; Chen Changsong

With the increasing penetration of photovoltaic (PV) power system into the utility network, the issue caused by the fluctuation and intermittence of PV power output draws more attention. In order to predict the hourly power output for a PV system without any complex meteorological instrumentation, a NARX network-based forecasting model is proposed in this paper. Hottel's radiation model is applied to calculate clear-sky radiation incident on any inclined surface at any time. Furthermore, weather forecast data from public websites are taken as the variables that depict the cloud status in future days. By giving enough historical data, the network can be well trained. While forecasting power output, the NARX network can also adjust its weights according to the forecast error. Due to its adaptation to time-varying input, the proposed method can predict PV power output accurately even if the weather changes suddenly. Forecasting results of a roof-top PV power system verify the effectiveness of the proposed model with high precision and high efficiency.

Published in:

The 2nd International Symposium on Power Electronics for Distributed Generation Systems

Date of Conference:

16-18 June 2010