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Mobility model and call admission control (CAC) algorithm are important for wireless mobility networks. This paper firstly sets a practical mobility model, and then presents a novel measurement-based CAC algorithm utilizing time series analysis under the random model. The algorithm updates the reservation threshold by directly forecasting the next possible number of handoff dropping calls, using ARMA (auto regressive moving average) model. The simulation results suggest that the approach achieves a higher resource utilization than existing approaches while reliably meeting the target handoff-call-dropping probability. Also, the algorithm provides lower new-call-blocking probability.