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Ultrahigh frequency fatigue (GHz) can lead to the formation of extrusions in aluminum thin film metallizations. Protruding from the surface, such extrusions can connect adjacent electrodes leading to the formation of short circuits. In situ observations presented in this paper verify this belief. Based on measurements from ex situ experiments, we present a defect-based probabilistic model to predict the failure probability, allowing to estimate the lifetime of test devices undergoing such load conditions.