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Long-Term Prediction Intervals of Time Series

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3 Author(s)
Zhou Zhou ; Department of Statistics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA ; Zhiwei Xu ; Wei Biao Wu

We consider the problem of predicting aggregates or sums of future values of a process based on its past values. In contrast with the conventional prediction problem in which one predicts a future value given past values of the process, in our setting the number of aggregates can go to infinity with respect to the number of available observations. Consistency and Bahadur representations of the prediction estimators are established. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of different prediction estimators.

Published in:

IEEE Transactions on Information Theory  (Volume:56 ,  Issue: 3 )