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With the analysis to the research actuality and its problems to regional safety risk assessment at home and abroad, a method of regional safety risk assessment for Urban Chemical Industrial Park with multi-danger source is put forward. Firstly, the assessed region is carved up into series of two dimensional square grids in equal Stride length mesh based on grid partition method. Secondly, making use of the information diffusion method, the probabilities of fire and explosion in park are calculated based on the statistic data of Dalian city. At the same times, the severity degrees of the results of accidents are analyzed based on the model of Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE), and then the injury ranges of the death, the severe injured and the mild injury have been transformed into the probability of individual death. Thirdly, the individual safety risk values in center of the grids are calculated according to the superposition principle of risks, and the social safety risks are assessed founded on the Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function (CCDF). Finally, the distribution maps of the individual safety risk and social safety risk are drawn according to the interpolation functions, and the practice model is provided.
Date of Conference: 10-12 Nov. 2009