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Recently, the threshold of 980 nm VCSELs with an oxide confinement structure has been reduced below 100 /spl mu/A. We model their ultimate threshold performance as well as secondary mode discrimination, and estimate the carrier diffusion length in our devices. The self-consistent model takes into account carrier diffusion as well as various optical processes like scattering or diffraction, and uses a logarithmic gain model for quantum wells. The active layer consists of three 80 /spl Aring/ thick InGaAs strained quantum wells separated by 100 /spl Aring/ GaAs barriers.