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Project portfolios of EU programme organizations typically contain hundreds or even thousands of diverse projects, carried out by public or private organizations each being at a different level of organizational project management maturity. As a result an embedded risk exists regarding the allocation of funds to potential project organizations which could lead to high opportunity costs from not being able to fully utilize the programme's available funds. Spotting early signs of underperformance is crucial for programme managers in their decision making concerning the implementation of potential corrective actions, or reallocation of funds. Reduction of this type of risk can only be achieved by monitoring the cost progress of each project against its approved budget. This paper presents a methodological framework applied to a real case study where projects can be classified according to the shape of their S-curve in a way that provides a strong indication about their final performance.