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Scenario Analysis and System Dynamics in New Emerging Technology Research: Case Mobile Peer-to-Peer Content Distribution

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3 Author(s)
Juuso Karikoski ; Dept. of Commun. & Networking, Helsinki Univ. of Technol., Espoo, Finland ; Mikko Heikkinen ; Heikki Hämmäinen

This paper studies the use of scenario analysis and system dynamics in researching mobile peer-to-peer content distribution as a new emerging technology. Scenario analysis bounds the uncertainty related to the alternative futures of the technology by defining different scenarios. System dynamics is used to build a quantitative model based on the scenarios. During the research process four learning scenarios and a quantitative model depicting a dynamic mobile peer-to-peer file sharing ecosystem are constructed. As a result we conclude that the usage of scenario analysis is favorable in researching mobile peer-to-peer content distribution as a new emerging technology while the applicability of system dynamics can be questioned.

Published in:

Advances in P2P Systems, 2009. AP2PS '09. First International Conference on

Date of Conference:

11-16 Oct. 2009