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The characteristic analysis and forecasting of mid-long term load based on spatial autoregressive model

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4 Author(s)
Guowei Cai ; Sch. of Electr. Eng., Northeast Dianli Univ., Jilin, China ; Yang, Deyou ; Ying Jiao ; Chao Pan

Using spatial autoregressive model, the spatial characteristic between power demand and GDP is analyzed in this paper. And the combination model of forecasting in which the spatial characteristic between power requirement was considered is established. Simulations results show the distinct spatial dependence between power requirement and GDP, and the dependence between power requirements and GDP is very strongly in space. The forecasting results show the error of the combination model of forecasting which was established in this paper is very small. Besides the combination model proposed in this paper is a effective forecasting method because of its strong adaptability.

Published in:

Sustainable Power Generation and Supply, 2009. SUPERGEN '09. International Conference on

Date of Conference:

6-7 April 2009

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