Handling uncertainty with possibility theory and fuzzy sets in a satellite fault diagnosis application

The fault mode effects and criticality analyses (FMECA) describe the impact of identified faults. They form an important category of knowledge gathered during the design phase of a satellite and are used also for diagnosis activities. This paper proposes their extension, allowing a finer representation of the available knowledge, at approximately the same cost, through the introduction of an appropriate representation of uncertainty and incompleteness based on Zadeh's possibility theory and fuzzy sets. The main benefit of the approach is to provide a qualitative treatment of uncertainty where we can for instance distinguish manifestations which are more or less certainly present (or absent) and manifestations which are more or less possibly present (or absent) when a given fault is present. In a second step, the proposed approach is extended to handle fault impacts expressed as event chronologies. Efficient, real-time compatible discrimination techniques exploiting uncertain observations are introduced, and an example of satellite fault diagnosis illustrates the method. A brief rationale for the choice of possibility theory and fuzzy sets is provided.