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The Environment Value of an Opponent Model

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1 Author(s)
Borghetti, B.J. ; Dept. of Electr. & Comput. Eng., Air Force Inst. of Technol., Dayton, OH, USA

We develop an upper bound for the potential performance improvement of an agent using a best response to a model of an opponent instead of an uninformed game-theoretic equilibrium strategy. We show that the bound is a function of only the domain structure of an adversarial environment and does not depend on the actual actors in the environment. This bounds-finding technique will enable system designers to determine if and what type of opponent models would be profitable in a given adversarial environment. It also gives them a baseline value with which to compare performance of instantiated opponent models. We study this method in two domains: selecting intelligence collection priorities for convoy defense and determining the value of predicting enemy decisions in a simplified war game.

Published in:

Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part B: Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:40 ,  Issue: 3 )