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In power system reliability evaluation, alternating renewal process is generally used to model the failure and repair cycle of a component. This means that after repair, the component is assumed to be restored to as good as new condition from the reliability perspective. However, in practice, there may exist an aging trend in some components as they grow old. This paper describes how aging characteristics of components may impact the calculation of commonly used reliability indices such as loss of load expectation (LOLE). In order to construct the system failure and repair history of components, sequential Monte Carlo simulation method using stochastic point process modeling is introduced. Three methods are described for this purpose and this methodology is applied to the single area IEEE reliability test system. The results are analyzed and compared.
Date of Publication: Feb. 2010