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Bayesian Estimation of Parameters of Life Distributions and Reliability from Type II Censored Samples

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2 Author(s)
Moore, Albert H. ; Air Force Institute of Technology (AFIT/ENC); Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433; USA. ; Bilikam, J.Edward

The Bayesian approach to reliability estimation from Type II censored samples is discussed here with emphasis on obtaining natural conjugate prior distributions. The underlying sampling distribution from which the censored samples are drawn follows a generalized life model (GLM) which includes a model proposed by Epstein and Sobel, Weibull, exponential, and Rayleigh distributions as special cases. Results are given for the Type II asymptotic distribution of largest values, Pareto, and Limited distribution. The natural conjugate prior, Bayes estimate for the generalized scale parameter, posterior risk, Bayes risk and Bayes estimate of the reliability function were derived for the distributions studied. In every case the natural conjugate prior is a 2-parameter family which provides a wide range of possible prior knowledge. Conjugate diffuse priors were derived. A diffuse prior, also called a quasi-pdf, is not a pdf because its integral is not unity. It represents roughly an informationless prior state of knowledge. The proper choice of the parameter for the diffuse prior leads to maximum likelihood, classical uniform minimum-variance unbiased estimator, and an admissible biased estimator with minimum mean square error as the generalized Bayes estimate. A feature of the GLM is the increasing function g(·) with possible applications in accelerated testing. KG(·) is a s-complete s-sufficient statistic for ¿, and KG(·)/m is a maximum likelihood estimate for ¿. Similar results were obtained for the Pareto, Type II asymptotic distribution of extremes, Pareto (associated with Pearl-Reed growth distribution) and others.

Published in:

Reliability, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:R-27 ,  Issue: 1 )

Date of Publication:

April 1978

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