A Critical Review of Human Performance Reliability Predictive Methods

Similarities and differences among 22 methods of quantitatively predicting operator and technician performance are described. Emphasis has been given to eight methods most fully developed and most likely to be used by system engineers. Two general techniques are employed: analysis of historical data and computer-simulation of behavioral processes. No general purpose methodology is available; each method deals with some types of tasks and systems more efficiently than others. In general, simulation-based methods are more powerful than nonsimulation methods. Most methods output probability estimates of successful task/system performance and completion time, but are relatively insensitive to equipment design parameters, manpower selection and training needs. With only one exception no operability method utilizes a formal data base as input and in most cases the parameters these input data describe are not specifically indicated. For most methods validation and/or system application data are either lacking or incomplete.