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In order to evaluate the battle ability of missile against aircraft carrier formation, the Markov model is used to simulate the penetration effects for missiles at different altitude and different speed. Based on the particular analysis of the interception system of aircraft carrier formation, assume the raid missiles obey Poisson distribution and the interception system of the formation dispose the raid missiles with the queue theory of 'first-come first-service', by setting logical parameters, the penetration effects of missiles at different speed and different altitude can be verified. From the simulation, two feasible technologies for missiles to penetrate effectively is validated: one is hedgehopping with subsonic speed; the other is ultrasonic flying at low altitude. The interception model has been constructed for aircraft carrier formation is universal applicable, by changing corresponding parameters, it can be used to evaluate the penetration effects for interception system of other formations.