A new probabilistic power flow analysis method

A method for the simulation of the composite power system is proposed for the purpose of evaluating the probability distribution function of circuit flows and bus voltage magnitudes. The method consists of two steps. First, given the probabilistic electric load model, the probability distribution function of the total generation of generation buses is computed. Second, circuit flows and bus voltage magnitudes are expressed as linear combinations of power injections at generation buses. This relationship allows the computation of the distribution functions of circuit flows and bus voltage magnitudes. The method incorporates major operating practices such as economic dispatch and nonlinearities resulting from the power flow equations. Validation of the method is performed via Monte Carlo simulation. Typical results are presented, showing that the proposed method matches the results obtained with the Monte Carlo simulations very well. Potential applications of the proposed method are: composite power system reliability analysis and transmission loss evaluation.<
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