Cart (Loading....) | Create Account
Close category search window
 

Achievability of Pakistan's 2030 Electricity Generation Goals Established under Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF): Validation Using Time Series Models and Error Decomposition Technique

Sign In

Cookies must be enabled to login.After enabling cookies , please use refresh or reload or ctrl+f5 on the browser for the login options.

Formats Non-Member Member
$31 $13
Learn how you can qualify for the best price for this item!
Become an IEEE Member or Subscribe to
IEEE Xplore for exclusive pricing!
close button

puzzle piece

IEEE membership options for an individual and IEEE Xplore subscriptions for an organization offer the most affordable access to essential journal articles, conference papers, standards, eBooks, and eLearning courses.

Learn more about:

IEEE membership

IEEE Xplore subscriptions

4 Author(s)
Choudhary, M.A. ; Dept. of Eng. Manage., Nat. Univ. of Sci.&Technol., Islamabad ; Khan, N. ; Ali, A. ; Abbas, A.

Forecasting Pakistan's energy needs is imperative to develop adequate plans for addressing long term energy requirements. Despite the availability of variety of forecasting models and decision making tools, the forecasts and projections are frequently off by wide margins. The Medium Term Development Framework (MTDF) developed by Government of Pakistan forecasted that the electricity generation capacity will be increased from the existing 19540 MW to over 162,590 MW by 2030. Similar projections are made regarding the sectoral and cumulative consumption. Keeping in view the historical electricity generation capacities of 6444 MW Hydel, 12000 MW Thermal between 1950-2005 and only 460 MW Nuclear between 1980 and 2000, it seems very unlikely that these projections are achievable due to a variety of political, technical and financial barriers. Well established Time Series Models and Error Decomposition Technique were applied to assess the achievability of the projections made in the MTDF and it was found that the country is going to miss these projections by a wide margins. Suggestions have been made to make more realistic forecasts.

Published in:

Energy 2030 Conference, 2008. ENERGY 2008. IEEE

Date of Conference:

17-18 Nov. 2008

Need Help?


IEEE Advancing Technology for Humanity About IEEE Xplore | Contact | Help | Terms of Use | Nondiscrimination Policy | Site Map | Privacy & Opting Out of Cookies

A not-for-profit organization, IEEE is the world's largest professional association for the advancement of technology.
© Copyright 2014 IEEE - All rights reserved. Use of this web site signifies your agreement to the terms and conditions.