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Urban Electric Load Forecasting in China Using Combined Cellular Automata

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5 Author(s)
Yongxiu He ; North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing ; Dezhi Li ; Rui Fang ; Lifang Yang
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With the high-speed economic development in China, the transition of structural function in the urban land system highly effects the development of the urban electric load. Forecasting the urban electric load accurately is the foundation of decision making scientifically for the development and planning of the urban power grid in China. This paper improves the decision method of Transition Matrices of Land Use and Cover Change though integrating Cellular Automation with Markov Model firstly. Then, the combined cellular automation model is used to simulate the urban land function evolvement and forecast the land functions in the future as the start point for electric load forecasting. Considering the changes of urban land functions, electric load density, the urban electric load forecasting model is proposed. Finally, the model validation is performed by comparing model predictions with the load data though case study. The results obtained show the accuracy of the adopted methodology for urban load forecasting.

Published in:

Modelling, Simulation and Optimization, 2008. WMSO '08. International Workshop on

Date of Conference:

27-28 Dec. 2008