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Take system dynamics (SD) as the framework of study, use support vector machines (SVM) to obtain the non-linear relationship among units of product development complex system; and then use rough set (RS) method to analysis the feedback loop of flow-chart of the system, so as to find the non-linear dynamics correcting mechanism of product development. The simulation model can illuminate factually the essentiality of the evolution process of new product development. The essential factors of product development was found with Rough Set method by the simulation model, and it was found that the system of essential factors in certain space can play an important role in the steady of the system. It was proved that the managers can raise the success rate of new product development and make it easy to forecast and control the evolution process of product development by regulating the essential factors.