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Based on Puu 's discrete model, a nonlinear dynamic model of socio-economic system was developed where the effect of exterior periodic fluctuation on economic system was considered. Stability and bifurcation of system was analyzed based on nonlinear dynamic theory, and three kinds of socio-economic form were divided. The risk of socio-economic system during economic transition was discussed. The results of theoretic analysis and simulation show that the difference between acceleration coefficient and marginal propensity to save is the main factor causing bifurcation of socio-economic system.