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Multi-casting and data distribution management (DDM) play a critical role in the design of future generations of large-scale distributed simulation systems, in which a large number of DDM messages are exchanged between the participating entities. Thus, communication overhead is one of the most challenging issues that needs to be studied and it must be investigated further whether each message should be sent immediately after it is generated during the simulation or held until it can be grouped with other DDM messages. Very little work has been done to answer these questions. Our experimental results have shown that the total DDM time of a simulation varies considerably depending on which transmission strategy is used. Moreover, in the case of message grouping, the DDM time depends on the size of the group. In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive transmission control (ATC) scheme for DDM. As opposed to previous DDM schemes, our proposed scheme has the ability to predict the average amount of DDM messages generated in each timestep of a simulation. Therefore, the ATC scheme is able to control a simulation running in the most appropriate mode to achieve a desired performance. In order to accomplish this goal, we will show how to use the switching model to predict the average amount of DDM messages generated in the grid-based DDM system. The experimental results are used to validate the correctness of the switching model and exhibit improved performance over previous schemes.