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A multidisciplinary approach to model long-term investments in electricity generation: Combining System Dynamics, credit risk theory and game theory

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4 Author(s)
Sanchez, J.J. ; Inst. de Investig. Tecnol., Univ. Pontificia de Comillas, Madrid ; Barquin, J. ; Centeno, E. ; Lopez-Pea, A.

This paper provides a new multidisciplinary approach to model long-term planning of electricity generation. The aim of this approach is to improve several aspects of system-dynamics based models in the literature in terms of companiespsila differentiation in imperfect markets. To do this, system dynamics is combined with credit risk theory and game theory. Particularly, this paper presents in detail the part of the model which focuses on companiespsila differentiation when calculating the expected profitability of possible new investments. This approach can be used as a tool to analyse long-term dynamics of electricity markets and the way the new generation capacity enters into these markets under different hypothesis of companiespsila strategies and regulatory policies. A case study based in the Spanish market to show the potential of this approach is presented.

Published in:

Power and Energy Society General Meeting - Conversion and Delivery of Electrical Energy in the 21st Century, 2008 IEEE

Date of Conference:

20-24 July 2008