Scheduled System Maintenance:
On May 6th, system maintenance will take place from 8:00 AM - 12:00 PM ET (12:00 - 16:00 UTC). During this time, there may be intermittent impact on performance. We apologize for the inconvenience.
By Topic

Bioterrorism event detection based on the Markov switching model: A simulated anthrax outbreak study

Sign In

Cookies must be enabled to login.After enabling cookies , please use refresh or reload or ctrl+f5 on the browser for the login options.

The purchase and pricing options are temporarily unavailable. Please try again later.
3 Author(s)
Hsin-Min Lu ; Manage. Inf. Syst., Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ ; Daniel Zeng ; Hsinchun Chen

The threat of infectious disease outbreaks and bioterrorism attacks has stimulated the development of syndromic surveillance systems, which focus on using pre-diagnostic data such as emergency department chief complaints and over-the-counter (OTC) drug sales to detect bioterrorism events in a timely manner. A key function of syndromic surveillance systems is detecting possible bioterrorism events from time series data. In this paper, we propose a novel temporal outbreak detection method based on the Markov switching model, a special case of hidden Markov models. The model is motivated to address several computational problems with existing detection schemes concerning the inconsistency in parameter estimation and the resulting undesired detection performance. Preliminary evaluation using simulated outbreaks injected on authentic time series shows that our method outperforms benchmark methods in terms of outbreak detection speed and detection sensitivity at given levels of false alarm rates.

Published in:

Intelligence and Security Informatics, 2008. ISI 2008. IEEE International Conference on

Date of Conference:

17-20 June 2008