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The dynamic nature of topology makes it challengeable to estimate link loss rates in mobile ad hoc network (MANET). Firstly, simulation results based on existing mobility models have the unrealistic movement scenarios which may not correctly reflect true MANET performance. Secondly, it is difficult to identify MANET topology under these models due to phantasmagoric movements. This paper presents the circle movement mobility model (CMMM), which is superior to previous models, and its topology identification algorithm to characterize the dynamic MANET topology. Moreover, we present a loss inferring algorithmic based on modeling and computational methodology of factor graphs, which iteratively updates the estimates of link losses. The inference is a process based on unicast back-to-back packets probes sent from a sender to pairs of receivers. Without internal nodes' cooperations, the inference can be calculated using only information recorded at the end hosts. NS2 simulations show that the proposed algorithms exhibit good performance.