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When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices

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2 Author(s)
Boogert, A. ; Univ. of London, London ; Dupont, D.

We use a supply-demand framework to model the hourly day-ahead price of electricity (the spot price) based on publicly available information. With the model we can forecast the level and probability of a spike in the spot price defined as the spot price above a certain threshold. Several European countries have recently started publishing day-ahead forecasts of the available supply. This paper shows this forecasted capacity is quite successful in predicting spot price movements 24 h ahead.

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Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:23 ,  Issue: 2 )