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Soft-Computing Modelling of Seismicity in the Southern Hellenic Arc

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4 Author(s)
Konstantaras, A. ; Technol. Educ. Inst. of Crete, Chania ; Vallianatos, F. ; Varley, M.R. ; Makris, J.P.

This letter investigates the possible coalition of time intervals and patterns in seismic activity during the preparation process of consecutive sizeable seismic events (i.e., M S ges 5.9). During periods of low-level seismic activity, stress processes in the crust accumulate energy at the seismogenic area, while larger seismic events act as a decongesting mechanism that releases considerable amounts of that energy. Monthly mean seismicity rates have been introduced as a tool to monitor this energy management system and to divert this information into an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The purpose of the neuro-fuzzy model is to identify and to simulate the possible relationship between mean seismicity rates and time intervals among consecutive sizeable earthquakes. Successful training of the neuro-fuzzy model results in a real-time online processing mechanism that is capable of estimating the time interval between the latest and the next forthcoming sizeable seismic event.

Published in:

Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, IEEE  (Volume:5 ,  Issue: 3 )