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Long-term Price Range Forecast Applied to Risk Management Using Regression Models

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3 Author(s)
Azevedo, F. ; Support Res. Group of the Inst. of Eng., Porto ; Vale, Z.A. ; Oliveira, P.B.M.

Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level plusmn Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

Published in:

Intelligent Systems Applications to Power Systems, 2007. ISAP 2007. International Conference on

Date of Conference:

5-8 Nov. 2007