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Forecasting Innovation Diffusion of ICT Products Based on Trend-weighted Fuzzy Time-series Model

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2 Author(s)
Ching-Hsue Cheng ; Nat. Yunlin Univ. of Sci. & Technol., Yunlin ; You-Shyang Chen

This paper proposes a methodology which incorporates trend-weighting into the fuzzy time-series models advanced by Chen's and Yu 's method, to explore the extent to which the innovation diffusion of the ICT products could be adequately described by the proposed models. For verifying the proposed method, the actual DSL (digital subscriber line) subscriber data in Taiwan is illustrated, and evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method by comparing with different innovation diffusion models: Bass model, Logistic model and Dynamic model. The results show that our proposed model surpasses in accuracy the listing methods.

Published in:

Innovative Computing, Information and Control, 2007. ICICIC '07. Second International Conference on

Date of Conference:

5-7 Sept. 2007