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The problem of the game strategy attracts more and more attentions with the reform of electricity market. Through establishing a reasonable mathematical model, this paper formulates an optimal production strategy for an independent power provider. The method treats the maximum profit as a Bayes-Nash equilibrium with incomplete information and gives an estimation according to the production cost of rivals. The target of the strategy is to get an optimal response to the output of an independent power provider. Finally a detailed calculation example is given to show that the model and algorithm are applicable.