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Based on fuzzy-set theory, a method is considered for estimating and forecasting the performance parameters of a system under the condition of unknown probability distribution and small sample. Some concepts including point estimation, interval estimation, optimal level, empirical probability distribution and confidence level are recommended. The performance prediction in the system for application is also investigated. The validity of this method is examined by computer simulation experiments under the condition of small sample and typical distributions such as normal distribution, uniform distribution, Rayleigh distribution, and unknown distribution. The confidence level is proved to be higher than 95% via engineering experiment on noise of rolling bearings.
Date of Conference: 18-21 Aug. 2007