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This paper develops a model to predict the number of good integrated circuits (the yield) from a semiconductor wafer processing line. The model is different from other published models and predicts observed outcomes better. Many models tend to predict lower yields than those actually achieved because those models are inherently incapable of predicting the average number of good chips per wafer. The model developed in this paper is based on combinatorial analysis and considers the number of die sites on the wafer and the total number of yield detracting defects on the wafer. In contrast the other models referenced require at least two parameters as input data: the area of one die site or chip and the average defect density. A third parameter, the Cdf of the defect density is often implied by the selection of the model.
Date of Publication: Oct. 1986