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Fuel Contracting under Uncertainty

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3 Author(s)
Fancher, Richard B. ; Decision Focus, Inc. Los Altos, California ; Wilson, James F. ; Mueller, Howard A.

Uncertainty about fuel requirements and fuel market conditions has made long-term utility fuel planning risky. A methodology is presented that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the analysis of the fuel "contract mix" problem. The approach allows utility analysts to optimize contract mix in the face of uncertainty, to identify and quantify risks and to measure the value of fuel procurement flexibility.

Published in:

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on  (Volume:1 ,  Issue: 1 )